There are 1 200 people gathering in Cape Town who are spending more time than usual poring over weather reports … and doing so in-between bouts of trying to manage the butterflies zooming around their stomachs.
They are, of course, the riders who are taking on the rugged, eight-day Absa Cape Epic mountain bike stage race. It all starts on Sunday, when the prologue is held on Table Mountain, and the weather can play a fundamental role in making a stage manageable – or unbearable.
A headwind is ghastly, but a tailwind is terrific. Rain can settle down trails nicely, but too much can churn up mud and damage equipment. Heat can take its toll, as can bitter cold.
Long-range weather reports have mixed news for the riders: it’s generally going to be “coolish” … but it seems there will be a bit of rain around.
According to the much vaunted yr.no site there might be some light rain on the mountain on Sunday morning – 0.4mm between 5am and 11am. That, however, will be good news if it helps settle down trails that have become dusty recently (and more so with all the practising on the route the past few days). The wind should be light/gentle, with the SA Weather Service predicting it will get to around 9km/h in the morning. The temperature will peak at a manageable 21ºC.
On Monday riders head off to the Elgin Valley for Stages 1 and 2, both looped courses which start and end at the Oak Valley Wine Estate race village. yr.no is predicting that more than 4mm of rain will come down on Monday’s tough 113km route, mainly from 8am until mid-afternoon. The temperature won’t get much past 18ºC, it will be cloudy and the wind will be light to moderate. Cyclists worried about the damage wet conditions will do to their bikes might take some consolation from the Weather Service’s suggestion that there is only a 30% probability of rain.
By Tuesday morning the rain should have cleared and the day will be mostly cloudy, suggests yr.no. Temperatures will get up to 26ºC later in the day, but the morning shouldn’t be too bad. The Weather Service warns though that the wind might pick up to a fresh 19km/h from the south east, which might mean a headwind on sections of the route.
On Wednesday the sun will come out, but temperatures as riders leave Elgin for Worcester shouldn’t get much past 18ºC, according to yr.no. The wind might get quite frisky – the Weather Service predicts 19km/h again – but the good news is that it will again be a south easterly and will mostly be a tailwind or sidewind. The temperature in Worcester will peak at 27ºC, where it should be clear and sunny.
Thursday sees riders again doing a loop, starting and finishing in Worcester. The wind will switch to the north west, but will apparently be negligible. yr.no predicts that the temperature will get to 29ºC, which would make it the hottest day of the 2015 Absa Cape Epic. It might be even hotter in the valleys through which the riders will be racing.
On Friday (and bearing in mind that this really is a long range prediction right now) they might be escorted out of Worcester by light rain – 0.6mm during the morning and not much in the way of wind. The temperature there is not expected to get above 18ºC while riders are still in or around Worcester, but it could get up to about 28ºC in Wellington when they arrive later in the day.
On Saturday the temperature in Wellington shouldn’t get above 25ºC but will be cooler for most of the morning. yr.no describes the wind as a “light breeze” from the south east and there will be a bit of cloud around from mid-morning.
And then it’s Sunday and the ride to the finish from Wellington to Durbanville. The temperature in Wellington on that morning is not expected to get above 20ºC, but the breeze will be “moderate” from the south east: a sidewind.
Fittingly, the weather at the Grand Finale venue, the Meerendal Wine Estate in Durbanville, will be clear and sunny, with temperatures rising to about 28ºC.
But then again, the weather services never predicted the notoriously cold and wet day in 2012 which some veteran Absa Cape Epic riders now regard as the toughest stage ever …
*This year’s race takes place from 15 to 22 March and will once again take 1 200 riders through some of the Western Cape’s most unspoilt territory. The race kicks off with the Prologue in Table Mountain National Park, starting from the University of Cape Town, and finishes eight days later at Meerendal Wine Estate in Durbanville.
Meerendal will host the finish of the race and the Grand Finale celebrations for the first time. The Grand Finale will kick off with live entertainment, a farmer’s market, great food and wine and unmatched scenery. Vantage points will be accessible to the general public. Entrance is free.
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